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Friday, October 14, 2016

Giants' needs for 2017 quite apparent

I didn't really have the heart (or the time) to muster up a reaction post to Tuesday's heartbreaking loss to the Cubs, but I'm sure we all had the same sort of reaction and thoughts. It was a sadly poetic ending to what was an epic second-half collapse by a team that, outside that starting pitching, had no business being in the postseason. Most importantly though, it leaves the Giants and Bobby Evans with a clear "to-do list" for the winter.

A lot has been said about how Bruce Bochy handled that ninth inning Tuesday. Many people, including myself, would have liked to see Matty Moore go out there and at least start the ninth inning. I know the pitch count was way up, but he was pitching on 10 days rest and threw north of 130 pitches just 2 months prior while chasing a no-hitter with the Giants. Plus Moore mowed through the 8th inning and was looking as strong as he was all night. Once the move was made though, I wish he would have had the guts to go with one guy and ride him out. Whether it was Sergio Romo to start the ninth, Derick Law or Will Smith, I would have liked to see Boch go with a reliever and stick with him rather than go into that inning with the idea of playing the match-up game the whole time. In a sense, you can't really blame him, the Giants don't have a true closer, but I can't help but think that had he just left Law out there, maybe the next guy grounds into a double play. As soon as I saw the musical chairs being played with the bullpen I knew it was bad news, and that's all I can say about that game really.

Now, the game is done, the series is over, we've had a few days to mourn and it's time to move on. First off, Matt Moore was awesome in that game. He looked like MadBum 2.0 and in my mind justified the Matt Duffy trade with that outing and showed us that the 2017 starting rotation is going to have an extremely strong front-3, probably as good as any team's in the game. My guess is the 2017 rotation is pretty much set in stone with MadBum your ace, Johnny Cueto the two, Moore the three, Jeff Samardzija the four and Ty Blach the five. Matt Cain is still under contract and may be given a shot at the fifth spot but Blach not only finished the season with some strong outings, he threw very well in two NLDS outings as well which should cement his 2017 status on the roster. So, unless the Giants find some amazing bargain and get a quality starter to take a discount to come pitch for a contender. Maybe they add a lower level third wheel to the fifth starter competition (C.J. Wilson or Jaime Garcia would be interesting on one-year type prove yourself deals) but my guess is they won't even look at the starting pitching market. It's a good thing too cause the only FA starter that's maybe better than current Giants' fourth starter Samardzija is Jeremy Hellickson.

Instead, all of their attention will lay in the relief market as well as the outfield market. The Giants will be losing Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez and will need to replace those three with upgrades. They certainly need a closer and there are going to be some intriguing ones out there this winter. They also need to look at ways to upgrade their offense. Despite their starting rotation being a strong one, they can't bank on winning games 2-1 and 3-2 every night and they need to lengthen that lineup.

Luckily for them, they have upwards of $50M coming off the books and probably won't be retaining any of their own free agents. I could possibly see Romo returning if he takes a discount on a one-year deal but it won't be as a closer and probably not even as an 8th inning guy. He'd be a situational right-handed reliever to face predominantly right-handed batters and I don't know if the Giants will have a strong enough pen to carry one of those. As of now, the only people I'd say guaranteed spots in the 2017 bullpen would be Derick Law, Will Smith and Hunter Strickland. Everyone else will probably have to earn their way on, and that includes Matt Cain (despite his $20M price tag). As far as their outfield, the only two guys they have under contract are Hunter Pence and Denard Span, so they'll need a starting left fielder and hopefully an upgrade to Gregor Blanco as the fourth outfielder. I hope to never see Gorkys Hernandez forced into the starting lineup in a playoff game for this team ever again. I think their infield is pretty much set, with Nunez and Gillaspie both under team control and likely to return to shore up third base. Some are worried about Joe Panik's collapse but they'll keep rolling with him and maybe look to change only if Panik's hitting below .250 again through mid-season.

As far as the guys they could target, it's pretty early to say as we don't know who's going to re-sign where yet and who will or won't opt out of their contracts. Mark Melancon seems to be a popular choice amongst Giants' fans and pundits to be their next closer, but Kenley Jansen, Greg Holland (despite missing all of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Francisco Rodriguez are out there as well. Aroldis Chapman is also hitting the market but my guess is he'll be at the top of every team's list and will end up getting the largest contract for a relief pitcher in the history of baseball and the Giants may not want to get into that bidding war. Jansen most likely returns to the Dodgers on a deal similar to what Chapan gets, and Holland is still sort of a crap-shoot because he hasn't thrown since September 2015. This is why the 31 year-old Melancon seems like the best fit. If I had my way, I'd love to see Melancon signed to close and K-Rod brought in as the set-up man, though he probably will still be looking to close, coming off a 44-save season. It would be expensive to get two guys of that caliber but they have the money and the overwhelming need for quality at the back-end of that bullpen.

As far as the outfield market is concerned, that is much more thin and the Giants may need to go the trade route in order to fill that need. Yoenis Cespedes is the name that keeps getting tossed out, but he's going to want something the 3-year, $75M he signed last winter. He's the best all-around outfielder on the market and could easily get a deal similar to the one Jason Hayward signed with the Cubs last December. I wouldn't really want to go more than five years with the 31 year-old but I don't think the Giants would do 5/$150M. As bad as the Giants need one, I don't know that an outfielder with a career slash of .272/.325/.494 and has avoided the DL in just 2 out of 5 seasons in the big leagues is necessarily worth $25-30M per year but in this market he may get that. However, his big arm and bat and gold glove defense in left are pluses and his feel of the strike zone is improving. Also, he's coming off his two best years at the plate, is right in the middle of his prime (turns 31 this month), and his growing feel for the strike zone could mean his best is yet to come (look at how Jose Bautista thrived after turning 30). Add all these things up and you see why he'd be such in intriguing option and fit for the Giants.

Jay Bruce (though the Mets likely retain him), Bautista and Mark Trumbo are the only other big time hitting corner outfielders potentially hitting the market but their value really only comes through their power whereas Cespedes is far better in the outfield and will hit about 20-30 points higher than all of them. Bautista would be the main man if we're talking 4/5 years ago, but he's turning 36 this month and is coming off a very unproductive season. His best bet at this point in his career is to stay in the AL.

It's going to be a big winter for the Giants though, as they have the core guys still here and playing well and that starting rotation set for the foreseeable future, but they need that big bat, another decent role player and somewhat of a bullpen overhaul in order to get back to their championship-caliber level. Had they had a legit closer this year, they probably don't melt down in the second half like they did and probably are still playing right now, so that's certainly where you start if your Bobby Evans. This winter though, they need to cover all facets of the team or else next year it maybe it won't be the closer/bullpen that melts down, maybe Pence gets hurt again and their lack of depth and ability to score runs bites them in the rear. That's why I say never just assume your bench and bullpen will fall into place in spring. If your a team with Championship aspirations, you have to go into the year fully confident in all areas of your squad, from player 1 through 25.

We'll be on a short hiatus here at the Giants Baseball Blog, as there isn't likely to be any Giants' related news until after the World Series ends, but if something does pop up we'll be here. Otherwise, we'll be back in November once the offseason gets rolling and we can really delve into the free agent class and guys who could fit onto this team aside from the big names you've already heard. So enjoy the rest of the postseason if your still up for watching baseball after that. Hopefully the Cubs dismantle the Dodgers and go on to win it all to give us some justification to losing to them. The only way this season gets a little worse for Giants' fans is if the Dodgers are crowned 2016 Champions so I guess there is still something to kind of root for over the next couple weeks. Until then, it was a roller coaster ride in 2016 and I very much look forward to what the offeason has in store for this club with plenty of money to work with.
The Giants Baseball Blog

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

The Legend of Bumgarner grows in New York

This isn't the first time we've seen Madison Bumgarner pull out all stops in an elimination game, and hopefully it won't be the last. The Giants rode a MadBum complete game shutout and a Connor Gillaspie 3-run jack in the top of the 9th inning to victory and an NLDS match-up with MLB's favorite to win it all this season, the Chicago Cubs.

First off, let's talk about the game that transpired tonight. As I suspected, it was a well pitched game, but both pitchers lasted a little longer than I was expecting. I was hoping Bum would at least get through 7, but he went 9, and I was thinking the patient Giants' bats would have Sydergaard's pitch count up and out after the 6th, but he wound up carrying them through the 7th. Fortunately, the Giants didn't have to delve into their bullpen as MadBum was so economical with his pitches for the games first three innings (21 pitches total) and that, in the end, made all the difference in the World. Not that things would have been as tight for Sergio Romo had he went out in the 9th after they just took the three-run lead, but at least we didn't need to go there this time. MadBum did it all, including almost putting the Giants on the board in the 3rd with a jack himself, knocking it to the warning track in left center only to be ran down by Yeonis Cespedes. As far as his mound work though, he was his typical "Big Game" self, allowing just 6 base runners and using 119 pitches to send the Mets home for 2016!

As amazing as he was, Bumgarner doesn't get all the spotlight for Wednesday's victory though, as perhaps the most unlikely guy in the Giants lineup came up with the biggest hit of their season. Connor Gillaspie's a guy who wasn't even on the big league roster for much of the 2016 season, but he took over for an injured Eduardo Nunez the last week of the regular season and ended up finishing the season strong at the plate and it carried over into this Wild Card game as he not only came up with the deciding big fly, but was the only Giant to collect multiple hits in Wednesday's showdown. Brandon Belt was robbed on a great play by Curtis Granderson on a ball that would have knocked in a run and put Belt in scoring position for Buster Posey and at that point I have to admit, I felt like the luck may be leaning toward the home team. Also that non-reverse on that steal by Denard Span in which it was clear he was safe and there was no hard evidence of him coming off the bag. So the Giants had to keep their heads up through a few tough breaks, but they stayed in it and Gillaspie made all the hard work pay off in the ninth. It was eerily similar to the Travis Ishikawa jack back in the 2014 postseason in the NLDS game clincher.

So, before we talk about the Cubs and what great series' both NLDS match-ups have in store, the Giants will have a couple days to figure out how they want to configure their roster for said series. The big wild card will be Eduardo Nunez. He was not well enough to make this roster, and my guess is that not much will change over the next 48 hours with his hammy to the point where Bochy and co. feel comfortable trotting him back out there. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see Gillaspie as the third basemen for the upcoming NLDS as well and Nunez once again excluded from the roster. Gillaspie may get the starting nod there (at least vs. right-handers) anyway if Nunez does make the roster as I think he's playing better than Nunez right now and is certainly more healthy.

Anyhow, I do expect there to be changes to the NLDS roster. Obviously Matt Moore will be back on there and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Giants roll with another right-handed bat off the bench like Mac Williamson, just to be ready for any potential Aroldis Chapman appearances. Other than that, I expect much of the same as we got today. One thing Boch will have to figure out is the order of his rotation. It's pretty clear Cueto will get game one and MadBum game three but it's not clear whether Samardzija or Matt Moore get that game two start in Chicago. If I were to guess I'd say Moore gets the nod with Samardzija saved for a possible home start in game four. Some food for thought for Bochy; in his one start at Wrigley this year, Samardzija went just 4 innings, giving up 3 runs and 8 base-runners while the Cubs have never faced Matt Moore.

What a game though guys, as the Giants improved to 11-0 in elimination games under Bruce Bochy in the postseason. That's pretty impressive and hopefully that streak keeps growing over the next few weeks. Not sure if I'll get a chance to do a preview post for the upcoming series as work will have me tied up through the weekend but I will check in periodically throughout the NLDS with short reaction posts. Also, if you aren't doing so, please follow us on twitter for our in-game banter and analysis.
The Giants Baseball Blog

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

NL Wild Card Game Preview

Well, the day that most Giants fans have been anticipating since late August when we pretty much knew the NL West was out of the picture has arrived. And sure, it's a team sport and there will be numerous factors at play, it really all comes down to two people: Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard.

First off, both pitchers going have had very strong seasons, as we know by watching MadBum all year what he's been up to, but young Noah Syndergaard has matched him nearly number for number despite the amount of innings pitched. Sydergaard strikes out a ton of batters, doesn't walk many and doesn't give up the long ball, mostly because he brings a nasty sinker that can hit the upper-90's when he's on along with an array of other above average pitches. The Giants, however, are no strangers to facing big pitchers in big games and certainly won't be intimidated by any stretch traveling into New York and what will be a rowdy Citi Field. In fact, I think the Giants thrive on these underdog type scenarios. Not saying they're the underdogs necessarily, most people over at Yahoo Sports have the Giants walking away from this one victorious but they're gonna have to figure out a way to get to the young Mets' righty early, or else their in for trouble.

One area in which the Mets have the clear upper hand is in the bullpen. The Giants' pen have been dreadful in the second half and although multiple factors have been at play, the bullpen has been the epicenter of their second half meltdown. They just couldn't manage to keep leads after the 7th inning of ballgames or else we're not even talking about this game and talking about an upcoming NLDS vs. the Washington Nationals.

For MadBum it's not going to be anything new, and we all know he thrives on the big stage like this, but Bumgarner hasn't quite been the dominant MadBum we're used to recently. Not that he's been bad but he's carried an ERA around 4 for the last two months of the regular season and gave up 8 runs over his two starts to end the season. Nevertheless, I expect Bum on his game tomorrow, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him help himself at the plate. In fact, I could see it being a 0-0 game into the middle innings and having an unlikely person from either side put the first run(s) on the board like a big hit from one of the starters or a big defensive mishap that opens the door for the opposing team. I can definitely see a game where runs are scored late in the game and that's when it could be decided, which would be bad news for the Giants. They're best case scenario is to have MadBum get it at least to the 8th inning with a lead, therefore Boch won't be forced to go to the pen often at all. If we're seeing the bullpen in the 6th inning (even if it's happening with the Mets as well), the odds sway heavily in New York's favor.

The Giants have the experience and the big game pitcher, however their bullpen is a crap-shoot and they could be without their starting third basemen. The Mets have the home field advantage, which is big in a one-game playoff like this, and are coming in on a roll, having won four of their last five ballgames to close things out (and pitching terrifically in the process). Lets not forgot that this is pretty much the same team that represented the NL in the World Series last season too, so their bunch is far from timid in the October spotlight. One positive for MadBum and the Giants though is that most of the Mets' big "thumpers" (Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda) are left-handed, but two of their other top hitters, Jose Reyes and Yeonis Cespedes, both feast on lefties and have been hot.

All that said, this is such a tough one to predict, and I don't know that I can make a guess as to who will win this ballgame, I think it's that even. The Mets are hungry and finished strong, they also came within three victories of a World Championship last fall. These Giants sort of just wound up in the postseason based on their incredible first half because if you just saw their second half alone, you'd think they'd have no business being in the playoffs whatsoever. Being completely objective and based on the lineups being thrown out by both squads, I'd say the needle leans ever so slightly in the Mets favor, but until I see him fail, I can't bet against MadBum in October. So I say the Giants squeak it out, 5-4. Either way, I think it's going to be a tight, 1-run game that's going to undoubtedly have us all on the edge of our seats through the ninth inning.

We'll be back tomorrow with the reaction and I gotta say, even with the three championships the last 7 years, and covering the team through all it's success, I'm just as nervous for this game as I've been for any other early round playoff elimination game. As well all know, if the Giants do make it through, they're in pretty good shape for five and seven game series', just because of that starting pitching and the way they're all throwing the ball. Of course, they get the best team in baseball if they do make it through tomorrow, but let's just take this one day at a time! Good luck getting any sleep tonight Giants faithful!
The Giants Baseball Blog

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Giants righting the ship just in time?

We all know how forgettable the second half of July through most of August was for these San Francisco Giants. They lost their stranglehold on the NL West lead and went from one of the top teams in all of baseball in the first half to a team that's going to have to kick and fight their way into a postseason spot down the stretch.

None of the deals they made at the deadline seemed to give the team the shot in the arm they were hoping for that first month or so after the deals (aside from a few decent starts from Matt Moore). The beautiful thing about baseball, however, is that you can go through prolonged rough patches, but as long as you figure things out by September and are still in the hunt, your never really out of it. We're seeing something like this go on with these San Francisco Giants. I mean, they've been one of the worst teams in baseball after the break and it's not like they've had a bunch of injuries or anything to blame that on. However, Since the calendar flipped over the September, the urgency in the Giants' play has picked up a bit, and although that recent three-game sweep suffered at the hands of the Padres earlier this week, it came on the heels of a three-game sweep of Arizona and they've no taken the first two of a four game set with the wild card hopeful Cardinals. As things stand on September 17th, the Giants are still 4 games out of the West, but they'll have ample opportunity to make up ground on the Dodgers there even though there's less than 15 games left in the season. The Giants have 6 of their remaining 16 games left with their SoCal rivals so the West isn't quite as done of a deal as many believe.

As far as the wild card situation, unless the Giants have a complete meltdown, which is entirely possible with the way their unpredictable second half has transpired, but their starters are throwing very well right now and I just don't see them relinquishing their top Wild Card spot. The Giants and Mets hold the two spots right now, and the next closest team to them is the very team the Giants are facing this weekend and have already taken the first two games of the series against in St. Louis. If the Giants can finish them off and sweep the Cards these next two games, I think that will pretty much lock them into a postseason birth. They currently sit 3 games back of the Giants who hold the first WC spot and 2 back of the Mets who hold the 2nd. Two more wins vs. the Cards would put the Giants 5 games up on them with 13 games left at that point so these next two are big for the Giants if they want to ensure their spot in the postsesaon.

So, it can shake out plenty of different ways, but as of now, with the Giants' play looking much more fundamentally sound and consistent, they should have themselves a spot in the playoffs, most likely via the Wild Card though and probably vs. the New York Mets. And, as we've said all along, this Giants team is built for playoff series with the strong starting pitching and a lineup full of hitters who've excelled on the big stage often more so than they do during the regular season. In other words, if they get in, they have as good a shot as any, including the Cubbies and Dodgers, at keeping that even year magic alive.

Now, you ask, what has changed between the Giants team we've seen the last couple weeks from the one we saw stinking it up for 6 weeks after the break? First and foremost, that starting pitching, which did run into a bit of a hiccup in August, looks like they've fallen right back in line as to where they expect to be. Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner have been there all year, but Matt Moore has started to string together some pretty nice outings himself. He's gone 4-1 over his last 5 starts, allowing just 11 earned runs and a 30:9 K/BB ratio over 28 innings of work. It's been his best 5-game stretch as a Giant by far. So yes, the objective of that widely unpopular deal to trade Matt Duffy away for Matt Moore is starting to pay dividends and has indeed has looked like the guy the Rays were gushing about a few seasons back when the left-hander went 17-4 and looked like a perennial all-star in down in Tampa. With those three heading the rotation and Jeff Samardzija rounding out what would be a four-man playoff rotation, the Giants have to feel pretty good with the way things are transpiring inside their staring rotation .

Extras: Saturday night's game is about to start so I'm having to cut this post a little short. I wanted to talk a little bit about the bullpen and of course give my thoughts on the lineup and maybe some different combos I'd like to see Bochy use over the next couple weeks heading into October. Be sure to check back after the game though for Saturday's game recap and more! This is the most exciting point of the season and there isn't any shortage of topics to talk about... We'll be back in few hours!
The Giants Baseball Blog

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Giants second-half skid getting worse

This series the Giants just finished up with the Pirates was one of the toughest I've seen all year. In all three games, the Giants coughed up comfortable leads and have now fallen 1.5 games back of LA in the West for the first time since early May.

Whats been especially rough is the way they're losing these games though. It seems like each day it's a particular area of the team that isn't pulling their weight. For example, Matt Moore, a guy the Giants paid heavily to get, wasn't able to give them a quality start on Monday and that, coupled with some bullpen deficiencies caused the Giants to lose a game they should have won. Then on Wednesday, Jeff Samardizja was solid, allowing 3 runs over 6 innings, but the Giants offense just couldn't quite figure out rookie Jameson Taillon and lost the game 4-3. Then, perhaps the toughest of all three losses came Wednesday, when the Giants staked Matt Cain a 4-run lead early and Matty looked like he was on his game through 4 innings, shutting down the Pirates. However, he not only coughed up the lead but allowed 6 runs in that brutal fifth, and the Giants only scored one the rest of the way, losing 6-5.

So yes, it was one of the more painful 3-game series I've seen them play all season and it's just now resonating with me that the Giants were vastly overachieving in the first half and that this team may not be a playoff team. They're not a good comeback team, and they have trouble scoring throughout the game. Most there damage usually comes in one or two innings. A big reason for that is there really isn't one guy in their lineup who's having a standout year (aside from Crawford and the RBI output) and after MadBum and Cueto, their rotation hasn't given any sort of consistency the last 6 weeks. Then of course there's the bullpen, which has been one of the worst in the league since the All-Star break as well. No lead seems to be safe right now and that's a scary thing.

None of the three trades they made at the deadline have paid off as of yet. Will Smith has been downright terrible, sporting a 12.26 ERA in his 7 games in the orange and black. Eduardo Nunez, who was a dynamic offensive player during an all-star first half in Minnesota hitting for average, power and stealing bases regularly, has come over to the NL and seemingly forgotten how to hit. He did finally connect  for his first home run as a Giant on Monday, but otherwise has been dreadful since the deal, hitting just .200 with that 1 HR and 3 RBI in 18 games. Granted, he spent his career in the AL, so an adjustment period was certainly expected, though it's carried on longer and has been worse then everyone was anticipating.

At this point, they have no choice but to ride it out and hope things turn back around for this final 6-week stretch run. We all knew the Giants were over-achieving in May and June, especially offensively, as they seemed to always find ways to scrap together enough runs to win but I didn't expect them to hit a wall like this (especially with everyone healthy). Pitching wise, they haven't been anywhere near as good as they were during that May/June run so it makes you wonder, which is the real 2016 San Francisco Giants? This team hasn't looked at all like a playoff-caliber squad for a considerable amount of time now and even if they got lucky and landed another reliable starter to take Cain's spot, or another bat or relief arm via waivers wouldn't make that much of a difference. In May/June they just kept figuring out ways to beat you like a good team does but now it's the complete opposite as they're finding different ways to lose ballgames. 

What they can do, and something I would like to see is them shake something up though. Whether it's dropping Cain from the rotation and giving a youngster like Tyler Beede or Ty Blach a shot or maybe doing something different with the top of the lineup, they have to make some attempt to get this team going. Usually Bochy's pretty good at knowing what strings to pull in this situation and I'm a bit surprised he hasn't made some switches by now. The only positive about losing their hold of first place over LA right now is that they'd have first priority on the waiver-wire and maybe they'll get lucky and find someone to come in and give them a shot in the arm like Cody Ross did in 2010, but they certainly cannot bank on that. They have to figure this out with what they have and while what they have may not be the best team in the league like they were heading into the All-Star break, they're better then what they've showed since.

Extra: As I'm sure you all know by now, the Giants brought back and old friend this week, signing Joe Nathan to a minor league deal. I think they did this more so with September in mind when rosters expand and they can use another veteran arm out in that bullpen, however, the 41 year-old did appear in a couple games with the Cubs earlier in the year and threw very well and may arrive sooner than that.
The Giants Baseball Blog

Saturday, August 13, 2016

Giants need more from big hitters

Much of the Giants struggles in the second half have been because of a major offensive drought the team has been going through the last month. Before the break, the Giants were figuring out ways to scrap together runs despite missing a couple of key contributors like Pence and Pagan.

Now fast-forward to mid-August, entering the stretch drive and the final 6+ weeks of the season, and the Giants lack of offense has become a trend that's lasted much longer than any of us were anticipating/hoping. Over the last 10 games the Giants have scored four-plus runs just four times, have been shut out twice and put up just a run in two of those contests. There pitching is good enough to where they're going to win most games in which they score more than 4 runs but that just hasn't been happening with any consistency. One of the reasons has been Hunter Pence. Hunter is a guy they were expecting a ton of run production from this year, yet he was knocked out for a couple months and has really struggled to get back on track since his return. Even before the injury he wasn't quite producing runs at a rate he's accustomed too though his average was up around .300 all year. Since his return however, neither the average or power has been there, as he's gone just 9-48 with 0 HR's and just one RBI while sporting a anemic .464 OPS! Before the injury, Pence was on pace for his typical .290'ish 20+ home run, 90+ RBI season, but he's not performing anywhere near that level right now and it's really hurting.

Pence's struggles have forced Bochy to drop him down in the lineup to the 7th slot recently. I personally would like to see him maybe shifted up into the two-hole with Belt or Crawford third then Posey fourth and maybe that will get him some more fastballs and get him back on track a little. Speaking of Posey, he's another guy who's not performing up to his career norm either. He's had such an odd season to say the least. He's gone through short mini bursts in which you think he's about to break out and turn back into that .320 hitting Buster who's hitting balls all over the yard and in the gaps, driving in runs. However, as the Giants enter play Saturday, Posey's sporting extremely pedestrian numbers for his standards with a line of .288/12/54/.818. Again, not bad at all for a catcher, but I'm sure the former MVP would like to be closer to 20 HR, and around 75 RBI at this point in the season than he is. To his credit, he is on pace to score the most runs of his career, which is more of a testament to Belt, Crawford and the guys behind him, but I'd like to see him step it up himself down the stretch.

If the Giants continue to get lackluster games from Pence at the plate and Buster stays on his current, very mediocre pace and can't hit another hot streak that can carry on for a few weeks and give this team some offensive life, the Giants are going to be in trouble. The Dodgers are right on their heels, just a game back, and they still have big reinforcements on the way in Rich Hill (back next week) and Clayton Kershaw (who is expected back by September). A month ago it was looking as if the Giants were going to just run away with this division. They were thriving despite rough back-end rotation performances and not having Pence and Pagan out there. Now, everyone is healthy, and they've even strengthened their rotation big time and found themselves a sorely lacking, top left-handed reliever, but they just can't find that rhythm they had going strong in May/June.

This is going to be a telling home stand in my opinion. After the Orioles the Giants get the Pirates and then the Mets. All these teams are beatable teams and the Giants should be able to take each of these series'. After this stand they have a tough stretch heading out on the road to face the Dodgers, Cubs, Rockies and D-Backs. The Rockies and D-Backs have given the Giants trouble in 2016 and the Cubs are the best team in baseball right now. Needless to say, some momentum going into that rough road stretch would be crucial.
The Giants Baseball Blog

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Giants ultra aggressive as deadline dust settles

The Giants parted with a lot of well known names in the organization over the last week, culminating with two big deals before Monday's 1 PM trade deadline. While I don't think they got away with any steals this summer, I'm leaning toward liking two of the three deals, but only time will tell how they really play out.

First the one I thought was a little too much for a little, well, too little. The Giants gave up Andrew Susac, an aging, albeit still valuable catching prospect, but also their top pick from 2015 and a guy who's looked it in his brief stint in pro ball in Phil Bickford for a middle reliever. Now, granted, that middle reliever has been one of the best in the game the last few seasons and should give the Giants exactly what they needed most in that bullpen, the price was a little too steep for my liking. I would have preferred more of a 2nd rate pitching prospect with Susac, someone along the lines of a Chris Stratton or Kyle Crick (who still has upside but has fallen in prospect ranks a bit recently). Instead the Giants parted with a guy some (including myself) believe to be their very best pitching prospect (yes over Beede because of age) for a middle reliever and that's a bit crazy when you really think about it. However, the Giants have a window they see of about 3-5 more seasons where they'll have this core group in-tact and in their relative primes and with that championship window open so it was clearly a go-for-it-now move and it did meet a need. Also, it gives the Giants get a top of the line LH reliever who will stick around for cheap through 2019 which I think was the selling point for Bobby Evans. He figures with the money saved in this move the Giants may be able to sign an international prospect who can come in and take right over for Bickford, but again, only time will tell.

As for the Matt-for-Matt trade, in which the Giants sent infielder, fan favorite and reigning ROY runner-up Matt Duffy along with top-10 pitching prospect Lucious Fox to Tampa for a guy who just two seasons ago was looking like he was becoming a premiere left-handed starter in this league, Matt Moore. At first, I was extremely bummed they had to give up Duffy, and I still am. I like him, I think he's a good player and does have the capability to be a solid major league regular like we saw in 2015, for years to come. However, we didn't see that this year, as he's been one of the worst offensive 3rd basemen all year long. Not too mention, the Giants just added a guy who needs to be in the starting lineup daily and really didn't have a spot with Pence and Panik both making returns. Nunez brings more pop and speed than Duffy but the ladder is the better defender (although Nunez hasn't looked too shabby in his brief stint here thus far) and had the knack for the clutch hit, especially in '15. I like that the Giants had a back-up plan in place for Duffy and probably will upgrade now at third base for the stretch run and have Nunez under contract for 2017 as well. Duffy, however, would have been under team control through 2019.

As for Matt Moore, as I said above, this guy was considered a rising star back in 2012/13 before getting injured. In fact, he went 17-4 with a 3.29 ERA with the Rays in 2013 (despite missing all of August), earning himself an All-Star appearance. However, he had to undergo the dreaded Tommy John Surgery in 2014 which essentially took away much of his last two seasons. He's looked liked he's rebounding nicely this year though and he's been respectable, although not the 2013-type successful. A move to the NL West and AT&T Park will be a huge positive for him and I'd be surprised if he didn't emerge as the Giants #3 starter down the stretch. He has that kind of potential. Also, he too is under team control with team options through 2019 that will pay him significantly less than others in his class would get. I mean if this guy were to become a FA after this year and finishes say, 13-13 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, like he's basically on pace for, he'd easily get a deal similar to what Jeff Samardzija just signed, if not more because he's only 27. And the Giants will have him for 8,9 and $10M over the next three seasons as long as he doesn't blow his arm out or something like that. So when you combine Moore's potential not only this year but into the future and at that cheap price along with the fact the Giants upgraded from Duffy with Nunez at third before hand made Duffy expendable this trade looking better than I originally thought upon first hearing it.

So in summation of the three deals, I do like the Nunez deal, although it took me a second to come around, sort of like the Moore deal, I give that deal a B- for the Giants. I like that they got Will Smith and certainly needed a competent left handed reliever but I hate that they gave up Bickford for him so that deal I give a straight C for. Finally, the big one, the Duffy for Moore deal, it too took a moment to digest but when taking all things we've mentioned into account, I'm leaning more in favor of it than I originally was. I give that one a B-/C+. If Moore goes on to be Barry Zito while Duffy becomes an all-star in Tampa, it's gonna suck. But Duffy, while always hitting for a nice average, was never a dominant minor leaguer and was really a surprise last year on an average team but this year the league seemed to catch up to him at the plate. Plus, with Cain and Peavy each a couple bad starts from being relieved of their starting duties down the stretch and Samardzija struggling, you can see why they wanted someone with Moore's capabilities.

Anyway, Let me know what you guys think down in the comment box! Did the Giants do enough to keep fending off the Dodgers, who themselves got a lot better on Monday, or could they have done better, different moves, or done nothing at all? I think this deadline was slim pickings so prices where high. Considering that, the Giants got themselves guys who aren't just rentals and should be around to help them win ballgames for the foreseeable future!

Extra: Here's a cool video on Matt Moore showing in-depth highlights in a recent start back in June. As you can see by evident of the 94 mph heater, the big hook and fall-off-the-table change-up, the guy can be really good and appears fully recovered from Tommy John. And again, coming from an AL East that features predominantly hitter-friendly yards to the NL West which offers quite the opposite.
The Giants Baseball Blog