We're less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, yet there's still a lot that needs to settle among this free agent class before that happens. The question is, will the Giants be involved?
After the Jordan Hicks signing became official last week, Farhan Zaidi held a state of the union interview and gave off indications that the team is likely done shopping at the top end of the market, at least for pitching. The Matt Chapman rumor that has surrounded this club all winter long won't go away until he signs somewhere, but any chance of pairing Logan Webb with Blake Snell atop the rotation seems to have ended.
The most important question this late in the winter is simple; are they a better team now than they were at the end of 2023? I don't think so, and even if they are, it's only marginally.
Even if Jung Ho Lee pops off with a quick, seamless transition to Major League baseball and shores up center field and the top of the order. Even if the Jordan Hicks experiment actually works and he can harness his incredible stuff for 90-100 pitches consistently, there are still multiple holes/question marks throughout this roster.
With Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb not able to help much in the first couple months, Ross Stripling, who was unusable for the majority of last season, is lining up to be the number two to start the season. After that, you have a handful of guys in Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Tristan Beck and Hicks, who have a combined 23 major league starts.
Don't get me wrong, I'm stoked on Winn and Harrison getting shots, and think they deserve it. I'm also not totally opposed to the Hicks experiment, knowing that if it doesn't work, they'll still have an elite late reliever. It's just a thin group without much experience and if a couple things don't pan out here, it could get really ugly very quickly.
The lineup has a little more certainty than the rotation, just not a whole lot of upside. They're returning seven of the nine starters from last year, when they were one of the worst scoring teams in baseball the last two months. I do think inserting Marco Luciano and Lee into the everyday lineup will ultimately help, it may not be right away.
With the team sitting about $29 million under the first CBT threshold, they could theoretically fit in another high-end addition. They could add Snell or Bellinger. They could add Chapman and maybe another piece.
Adding Chapman intrigues me the least but may make the most sense to them. They want to shore up the infield defense with a rotation full of sinker-ballers, and despite his offense fading after leaving Oakland, he still would bring speed, athleticism and power to the lineup.
I would roll the dice on Bellinger, as I've said here before. You could plug him into any of the outfield spots and get gold glove defense, or use him at first. He's at the beginning of his physical prime at 28. Most importantly though, the upside is so much higher than Chapman's.
The potential ceiling is what drives this thought. If Bellinger plays to his full ability, you have an MVP-caliber talent. You have a guy you can build around in the middle of the order. If Chapman hits his full potential, you have a .250 hitter with 25 home runs and great defense at third and still heading towards decline. The risk/reward on Bellinger's upside makes him worth that gamble in my opinion, especially for a team that needs to start rolling the dice a bit.
There's been plenty talk about Bellinger, Chapman, Snell and Montgomery, but those aren't the only free agents out there that could bring some value to this team. I wanted to take a quick look at nine remaining free agents that could fit into the Giants' plans in some way or another:
RHP Brandon Woodruff- It would be a move purely with 2025 in mind, but it may not be a bad idea at this point. Assuming he comes back strong, you place him along with Ray and Webb at the top of this rotation and you have one of the best front-three's in all of baseball.
RHP Liam Hendricks- Again, going with the narrative that they're gearing up for 2025, Hendricks could fit that plan. Should be back at full strength and would be an asset at the back-end of the bullpen.
LHP Hyun-jin Ryu- Had Paxton here before his deal with LA. Ryu would provide some short-term stability to the rotation. Injured most of last season but when he was on the field he was productive. May be more willing to take a one-year deal as well.
RHP Michael Lorenzen- Could help in the rotation early in the year and then move into the bullpen if/when they're able to provide better options. Was an all-star last year but faded so badly down the stretch that it's essentially dried up his market. If seeking to build his value back up for next year, this could be a perfect spot for him to pitch.
LHP Matt Moore- Giants need another lefty to compliment Taylor Rogers in their pen with Scott Alexander gone. I liked the idea of Aroldis Chapman but with him signing in Pittsburgh, Moore seems like a logical fit.
RHP Adam Ottavino- Steady, proven late reliever that could allow the the team to use Tyler Rogers more freely rather than the primary right-handed set-up guy. Still an all-star level reliever in the latter stage of his career.
IF Adalberto Mondesi- There has been nothing regarding Mondesi or his health status this winter, so he may still not be ready to go. If he is, the 27 year-old could bring a ton of speed and versatility to this middle infield. Definitely worth a minor league deal with escalators if he makes the team and stays healthy.
DH J.D. Martinez- The Giants have Wilmer Flores penciled into the DH spot right now, and he may be the best hitter on the team. JD would be tough to fit in but he's such a good hitter and they're lacking so badly in the middle of their order that they should try and figure something out.
1B/DH Rhys Hoskins- He would likely be demanding a nine-figure deal had he not missed all of 2023. He's a northern California native who could provide 30-home run power to the middle of the lineup. Like Martinez, he kind of fits a role this team already has filled, but his potential ceiling exceeds all of those in-house options.
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