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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

2009 Giants Preview and Predictions

I wanted to break away from the spring training jargon for a bit and I wanted to go ahead and do more of an in-depth preview of what the Giants will look like come opening day. I also am going to predict some of the key stats for the players. With our annual MLB team/divisional preview just around the corner, and opening day less than a month away, now is as good a time as any to take a closer look at the San Francisco Giants. Some of the final roster moves aren't set yet (as there still is 3 weeks of Cactus league to go still) but I'm going to go with my best guess.

Lineup:
1. RF- Randy Winn ( .288 avg, 11 hr's, 57 RBI, 89 runs, 21 sb's, .776 OPS)
2. SS- Edgar Renteria (.282, 12 hr, 64 RBI, 79 runs, 9 sb's, .759 OPS)
3. LF- Fred Lewis (.301, 17 hr, 76 RBI, 84 runs, 26 sb's, .817 OPS)
4. C- Bengie Molina (.280, 15 hr, 77 RBI, 43 runs, 0 sb, .756 OPS)
5. 3B- Pablo Sandoval (.277, 15 hr, 70 RBI, 62 runs, 5 sb, .786 OPS)
6. CF- Aaron Rowand (.281, 16 hr, 74 RBI, 64 runs, 9 sb, .782 OPS)
7. 1B- Travis Ishikawa (.270, 15 hr, 68 RBI, 44 runs, 2 sb, .778 OPS)
8. 2B- Emannuel Burriss (.285, 4 hr, 41 RBI, 63 runs, 31 sb, .759 OPS)

Rotation:
1. Tim Lincecum (19-8, 2.81 era, 217 IP, 242 k's, 1.12 WHIP)
2. Randy Johnson (14-9, 3.35 era, 184 IP, 172 k's, 1.26 WHIP)
3. Matt Cain (13-11, 3.79 era, 211 IP, 181 k's, 1.29 WHIP)
4. Barry Zito (9-15, 4.74 era, 188 IP, 113 k's, 1.42 WHIP)
5. Jonathan Sanchez (11-12, 4.26 era, 190 IP, 175 k's, 1.37 WHIP)

Bullpen:
CL: Brian Wilson (2-5, 67 games, 42 saves, 3.62 era)
SU: Bob Howry ( 4-3, 77 games, 2 saves, 3.31 era)
LH Jeremy Affeldt (4-4, 80 games, 1 save, 3.79 era)
RH Merkin Valdez (2-3, 61 games, 0 saves, 3.12 era)
LH Alex Hinshaw (1-4, 70 games, 0 saves, 4.36 era)
RH Brandon Medders (2-4, 65 games, 1 save, 4.14 era)
RH Joe Martinez* (2-5, 47 games, 7 starts, 4.67 era)

DL- Sergio Romo (mid-April, replaces Medders or Martinez)

Bench:
IF Juan Uribe (.252, 254 ab's, 11 hr, 31 RBI, 3 SB)
IF Rich Aurilia (.283, 275 ab's, 8 hr, 36 RBI)
OF Andris Torres* (.272, 142 ab's, 3 hr, 22 RBI, 11 SB)
OF Nate Schierholtz (.297, 340 ab's, 11 hr, 45 RBI)
UT Eugenio Velez (.272, 300 ab's, 7 hr, 27 RBI, 25 SB)

*denotes player who starts the year on 25-man roster, but isn't expected to finish season w/team.

Again, this is just pure instinct on how I think things will turn out as of March 11th. I haven't taken any other projection sites into account and this is assuming all stay healthy and on the team all season, which we know won't happen. It should be interesting to look back at this in September though, and see how close (or likely how far off) I was to predicting some of these numbers. I also am reserving the right to change them any number of times before opening day and finalize it once the roster has been finalized. I will revert back to this post at least once a month during the season to see how things are going.

2009 Record: 80 W-82 L
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7 Comments:

  • At 9:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    What overall record would you predict for these stat projections? I added up the wins and losses from the pitchers listed and got 80-56, for a total of 136 games. So what happens in the other 16 games? I could see them winning 80 games, but who will that mean Pat Misch/Joe Martinez goes 0-16 combined?

     
  • At 3:47 PM, Blogger Trevor Cole said…

    Like I said, it's just a rough estimate. But there will be other pitchers who come up throughout the season. I will probably change these a few more times before opening day as I said at the bottom of the post.

    As far as record wise. I think they are capable of winning 80 games and If I had to throw out a wild guess right now, I'd say finish around 500 81-81. Even though the Dodgers got ManRam back and they're the favorite. The Giants dominant pitching and some young hitters (Sandoval, Lewis ect..) should keep them at least relevant in the division, unlike years past.

     
  • At 5:35 PM, Anonymous terry hatcher said…

    These are pretty reasonable predictions. I don't know about Johnson having an era in the low 3's this late in his career though. I think 12 wins and a 4.00 era is more along the lines of what he'll do...

    I think Freddy lewis is going to have a big season too. Good post!

     
  • At 2:49 AM, Anonymous Walter Guest said…

    Those are reasonable projections but I’ve got a couple of bones to chew on.

    If Sandoval plays third you can bump all those ERAs up a notch. I don’t think his bat can make up for his glove there. He’s got the range of Long John Silver. The Giants are loaded with DH types.

    I’ve got reservations about Renteria. He was a leading under-performer on the leading under-performing team last year. After a decline year like that I would want to look into his date of birth down there in Columbia. He became a pro at the age of 16 it says in the records. That’s a convenient age to start but suppose he was really 18 or 21? He’s listed as 33 now. How old would that make him? I know I’m a bad person to bring that up and I know they keep meticulous records in Columbia and I know that something like that is unheard of so forget I said anything.

     
  • At 3:59 PM, Anonymous J-Bill said…

    I think Lincecum will win 20 this year. Book it!

     
  • At 3:56 AM, Anonymous Giants Fan In Dodgerland said…

    Wow. Spring Training is flying by. It's already halfway through March. Can't wait to get back to ATT Park and see this years team. I am usually an optimist, but this season I really see reason to be. This rotation rock solid and the young lineup has a chance be exciting and put up some runs. I believe "Pablito" Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa are going to do just fine.

     
  • At 4:02 AM, Anonymous Walter Guest said…

    And another thing, Randy Johnson, all 6’ 9” of him, is a delicate commodity. I’ve been following his starts for a few years. Every time they left him in for 115 pitches or more I’d say to myself, “Holy crap (or words to that effect) he’ll be out for four weeks now.” And you know something,’ half the time I was right.

    So how do you keep the guy from going back out when he wants to go back out? You gotta keep a tranquilizer gun in the dugout and put him to sleep.

    It’s for his own good.

     

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