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Monday, March 07, 2011

GBB's 2011 Giants Hitting Projections

The Giants are off to a fine start to Cactus League 2011, especially after Tim Lincecum's dominant outing Sunday afternoon (3 1/3 IP, 0 R, 7K's). So with everything flowing on field, here is GBB's version of the 2011 Giants hitting projections:

Projected Lineup:

CF Andres Torres:
.276 avg., 14 HR, 64 RBI, 80 Runs, 25 SB, .753 OPS
2B Freddy Sanchez: .301 avg., 8 HR, 55 RBI, 72 R, 33 2B, .731 OPS
1B Aubrey Huff: .282 avg., 21 HR, 85 RBI, 76 R, 29 2B, .845 OPS
C Buster Posey: .312 avg., 23 HR, 101 RBI, 89 R, 36 2B, .946 OPS
LF Pat Burrell: .252 avg., 19 HR, 68 RBI, 53 R, 21 2B, .812 OPS
SS Miguel Tejada: .275 avg., 15 HR, 72 RBI, 68 R, 30 2B, .789 OPS
3B Pablo Sandoval: .279 avg., 21 HR, 81 RBI, 65 R, 32 2B, .805 OPS
RF Cody Ross: .272 avg., 22 HR, 82 RBI, 61 R, 34 2B, .824 OPS

Projected Bench:

IF/OF Mark DeRosa: 124 G, .284 avg., 13 HR, 62 RBI, 51 R, .761 OPS
OF Aaron Rowand: 98 G, .267 avg., 9 HR, 39 RBI, 32 R, .709 OPS
IF Mike Fontenot: 101 G, .270 avg., 6 HR, 22 RBI, 27 R, .682 OPS
OF Nate Schierholtz: 89 G, .273 avg., 5 HR, 26 RBI, 32 R, .737 OPS
C Eli Whiteside: 62 G, .222 avg., 4 HR, 16 RBI, 23 R, .692 OPS
OF/IF Brandon Belt*: 91 G, .288 avg., 10 HR, 48 RBI, 41 R, .789 OPS

* indicates in-season call-up

Again, like with the pitching projections, these are just starting points, and will likely be changed at least once before opening day, but based on what we saw in the playoffs last year, as well as regular season tendencies, here is what I came up with for the Giants offensive projection for 2011. Also, there's a chance that these may not even be the hitters that start out the year for the Giants. Freddy Sanchez is still easing his way back from off-season shoulder surgery and we still don't know exactly who will be on first and who will be out in left field. Out of these guys, nobody really jumps out at you (besides Posey), but if the lineup can perform up to those standards, this team will have no trouble winning the West. I think the key to making that happen will be to get Pablo Sandoval going early on, and allowing Boch to establish a set lineup. I think Sandoval is the guy that holds all the power. If he's right, he'll probably hit fifth, but if he's not, Giants fans will get to know Mark DeRosa.
The Giants Baseball Blog


  • At 2:43 PM, Anonymous hitnrun said…

    Seems like a pretty good lineup on paper. I know projections are hard to make given injuries, slumps etc, but I think Sandoval may have better numbers than projected, as long as he keeps away from the buffet line. I noticed you did not list Ishikawa, who is on the bubble, but I would still rather keep him than Rowand and Schierholtz if he can play the outfield. At least he is a pinch hitting threat. Rowand and Schierholtz's projections are generous at best.

  • At 7:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I think Sandoval breaks out. He's had a great spring and seems to have his confidence back.

    Here's my prediction

    AB: 550
    Hits: 175
    Avg: .300
    2B: 35
    HR: 25
    RBI: 85
    OBP: .345
    SLG: .550

  • At 12:18 AM, Anonymous Noah said…

    Is this a gut check or based on a computer model?

    Pure power numbers look a little optimistic, if we have 5 guys hitting over .800 OPS all year, plus someone like a B. Belt potentially coming up in June, I'd be over the moon. Don't get me wrong, you know way more about this stuff than I do.

    I keep thinking the most important man on the payroll is going to be Dave Groeschner, head Giants trainer and the rest of the training room staff. Keep our guys healthy, stretched and strong.

    Panda returning to 2009 hitting form and not muffing too many hard throws to 1st is key to this lineup.


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