The Giants' fan fest has passed, the super bowl is just a week away and a few days after that pitchers and catchers officially arrive in Scottsdale. It's baseball time.
Today I wanted to take a closer look at a few guys who I believe will be huge keys in determining how this 2023 season goes for the Giants.
Now, there are the obvious things that need to happen, and I won't discuss those because it's pretty common knowledge. Logan Webb must continue entrenching himself as a true ace. They need Camilo Doval to keep growing on the success he's had the last two seasons. They also need Brandon Crawford to improve upon his 2022 output and anchor that middle part of the diamond like he's capable of.
This one isn't about those guys though.
Instead of the ace, the closer and the team's most tenured position player, who could help propel this team to 90+ wins and make them legit postseason contenders?
I'll start with one of the newest additions, Michael Conforto.
After the Giants' deal with Carlos Correa fell apart in the 11th hour, a huge void in the middle of their lineup resurfaced. The Giants are hoping Conforto fills that void.
Overlooked because he's not Correa and the last time we saw Conforto he underwhelmed with a down 2021 season, this guy has the ability to be the best all-around hitter on this team. Looking at what he did prior to that '21 campaign, you can see his intriguing upside.
The Giants lacked a true impact bat in their lineup after losing Buster Posey, and they never really had an identity to the middle of their order in 2022. Joc Pederson was the only guy they had last year suited to hit in that part of the lineup and they needed help there.
Now, it's no guarantee that Conforto can tap back into that pre-'21 form. That may be lost for good. However, if he does, he'll give the Giants an impact bat they desperately need to anchor them. I compared a lot of his career numbers with Buster Posey's a couple posts back, and Conforto has the ability, or at least had the ability, to be a star. A big season will likely net him a nine-figure contract next winter. There is no other position player on the team with the ability to do that.
The next guy I want to look at is Joey Bart.
Bart's journey has been well documented. We've been waiting for his breakout since 2020 and it just hasn't happened. There were times last season where it looked like he was turning the corner, but he finished the season slumping. The potential is still there though, and by the Giants not going out and pursuing a starting catcher this winter, their belief is as well.
If he gets a little more consistency at the plate and cuts down the k's, he could move up the lineup because we know his power is legit. It looks like he's right on the cusp, and he should be more comfortable in his second full season as a starter (not counting 2020). If he can just get that strikeout rate down 10-15% it seems like the rest would fall into place. Needless to say, it would pay huge dividends for their chances this year if this guy becomes more than just a bottom of the order project.
Next up is Mike Yastrzemski.
After the front office failed to obtain a more capable replacement in center field this winter, that job will mostly fall onto Yaz.
I think a lot of people forget just how good Yaz can be. MLB TV gave him props earlier in the offseason by naming him as the 9th best CF in baseball for 2023 (the only Giant to make any of their top-10 lists). His glove should be solid out there which should help bring some stability to the outfield defense regardless, but at the plate he could make an even bigger impact.
It feels like an eternity ago, but this guy was in the talk for NL MVP during that truncated 2020 season. With Posey opting out, Yaz really shouldered a lot of the offensive responsibility and he thrived. He took a little step-back in 2021 followed by a huge step back last season, but he battled some nagging injuries and missed time with covid. It was a bizarre year for him.
If he's fully healthy and can get back closer to that 2019-20 form when he was in the lineup no matter who the opponent was throwing, he could solidify the top part of the order. He can be an effective leadoff choice, especially vs. right-handers. Dude had a .400 OBP in 2020 and has had an above average OPS+ in three of his four seasons. If he can lock down that leadoff or two spot in front of Conforto, Hanigar and Joc, that would be huge.
The last position player that I think holds a larger key to 2023 than I think a lot of people realize is David Villar.
Never high on any prospect lists or highly touted as an amateur, Villar earned his way to the big leagues by just mashing at every level of the minors. His arrival in 2022 got off to a bit of a sketchy start, but he came back a different player in September looked like he belonged.
That strong finish has him penciled in as the Giants everyday third basemen, and if that production in September can translate over a full season he'll be an upgrade over Evan Longoria, offensively.
It will be him on the defensive side of things that I'll be watching close this spring. Longo was still a good defender last year, and for a team needing to stabilize their all-around defense, Villar's glove will be integral.
We pretty much know the range of outcomes at the other infield positions, but it's Villar at third that could go a long way toward making or breaking that group.
The fifth and final player we'll talk about today is Sean Manaea.
Manaea is largely viewed as the most disappointing of the Giants' free-agent acquisitions this winter and you can absolutely understand the skepticism. The lefty had a rough go of it during his first tour of the national league with the Padres last season, finishing with an ERA just under five. Much of that inflation can be attributed to just a few bad outings, but nonetheless, he's coming off his career-worst year.
Now, Manaea has never been considered an ace-level starter, so we definitely can't expect Carlos Rodon part two. He has always pitched much better than his showing in 2022 would suggest, however. Prior to last season, Manaea had a career ERA well under four and his strikeout rate was improving each season. Even last year he was still right at a k per inning and his WHIP wasn't terrible at 1.29.
The reason why I think he can be such a contributing factor is because he has the best shot at being the Giants' number three behind Webb and Alex Cobb if he's right. He's got that pedigree and likely some ability that Andrew Bailey and the staff think they can tap into.
The Giants have a lot of depth in their rotation, but most of it is viewed more as back-end rotation pieces. Number fours or fives. They need someone to separate from the that pack. As long as that ERA dips back below 4 and that strikeout rate stays up, good things should happen for him in San Francisco.
Once again, it's going to take a team effort for this Giants' squad to exceed expectations and sneak into the playoffs. I just see these five guys as players who have the potential to impact this team in a particularly big way. Three of them have been all-star level players more than once and are at pivotal points of their careers. The other two have the path to become the team's first homegrown mainstays since Crawford, Belt and Panik.
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