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Thursday, February 17, 2011

GBB's 2011 Giants Pitching Projections

It's that time of the year, with Spring Training games just around the corner and baseball's opening day just about 6 weeks out, that everybody is putting out their projections for just about everything and everyone in baseball for the upcoming season. With our annual division-by-division preview set to start in mid-March, I wanted to be sure to get out my giants team statistical projections as best as see it. This won't be taking into account any happening from exhibition play, which is another reason why I wanted to do this as early in camp as possible. In this post, we'll go through each of the projected Giants 12-man pitching staff and provide our own projections for the guys we expect to be on the opening day roster. So, without wasting any more of your guys valuable time, let's get into it:

Starting Rotation:

1. Tim Lincecum RHP: 18-6, 2.86 era, 214 IP, 241 K's, 1.10 WHIP, .213 BAA

2. Matt Cain RHP:
16-11, 3.41 era, 237 IP, 199 K's, 1.18 WHIP, .228 BAA

3. Jonathan Sanchez LHP
: 13-10, 3.59 era, 201 IP, 227 K's, 1.20 WHIP, .215 BAA

4. Barry Zito LHP
: 8-10, 4.32 era, 179 IP, 129 K's, 1.37 WHIP, .261 BAA

5. Madison Bumgarner LHP
: 13-7, 3.57 era, 198 IP, 172 K's, 1.22 WHIP, .243 BAA

Bullpen:

Brian Wilson RHP: 2-2, 49 saves, 2.13 era, 81 IP, 98 K's, 1.12 WHIP

Javier Lopez LHP
: 2-1, 66 games, 2.56 era, 60 IP, 52 K's, 1.01 WHIP

Santiago Casilla RHP
: 2-4, 79 games, 2.98 era, 78 IP, 71 K's, 1.15 WHIP

Ramon Ramirez RHP
: 1-2, 80 games, 3.51 era, 74 IP, 64 K's, 1.24 WHIP

Sergio Romo RHP
: 3-3, 77 games, 3.12 era, 74 IP, 79 K's, 1.08 WHIP

Jeremy Affeldt LHP
: 2-4, 69 games, 3.23 era, 69 IP, 55 K's, 1.28 WHIP

Jeff Suppan RHP
: 4-6. 26 games (11 GS), 4.67 era, 85 IP, 52 K's, 1.41 WHIP

Other likely first half call-ups at some point:

*Dan Runzler LHP
: 2-3, 32 games, 3.44 era, 43 IP, 46 K's, 1.38 WHIP

*Guillermo Mota RHP: 1-2, 49 games, 4.49 era, 50 IP, 42 K's, 1.31 WHIP

KEY- *marks player on the bubble of making team and could be called up early in season
NOTE: predictions are subject to change before 3/31/11.

Again, it's only mid-February, and many things can change between now and opening day, but at this point, I'd say these 12 pitchers are the favorites to make the opening day roster, and the numbers I projected were rough estimates, taking into account their past numbers, age and potential for improvement/decline with this particular baseball team. Again, since it's very likely that these won't be the exact 12 guys that make the opening day roster (with injuries and what not), so we will re-post this along with our upcoming hitting projection version, as well as various other Giants team preview agendas, after the Opening Day roster has been sent in.

Notes
: Arguably the two most important arms on the Giants staff sat out of Thursday's workouts, but only for precautionary reasons. Tim Lincecum complained of a stiff neck early in the day and closer Brian Wilson had the same problem with his back. Neither player said the injury was serious and both are expected back in camp on Friday.... They'll also be joined by most of the positional players as well, as all players are expected in camp by the end of the day Friday with the first full-squad workout scheduled for Saturday. Most of the core players like Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Pablo Sandoval, Cody Ross and Mark DeRosa are already there as they can't wait to get back on the field. 2nd basemen Freddy Sanchez, who was initially expected to miss a portion of the Cactus League games said Thursday he expects to be 100% and ready by the start of Cactus League play on February 25th vs. the Diamondbacks. I think the Giants should play it safe with Sanchez and even if he is indeed ready, they should limit his playing time early. Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot are both more than capable of handling the position, and I'd much rather have Sanchez 100% healthy on opening day than try and push him early on in spring.
_________________________________________________

7 Comments:

  • At 1:05 AM, Anonymous Brent Salasbry said…

    I think these are pretty accurate. Though here are a few guys I would change by quite a bit in mine;

    Lincecum: 22-10, 2.25 era, 236 IP, 255 K's, 1.03 WHIP

    Zito: 7-13, 5.10 era, 165 IP, 103 K's, 1.62 WHIP

    Wilson: 3-5, 3.77 era, 36 saves, 8 BS, 1.30 WHIP


    I don't know... I've been dubbed a cynic in the past, but I just see Zito tanking big time after getting no vote of confidence from his manager in the playoffs. Also, I think Timmy wins 20 this year, no doubt with the solid team around him.

    Wilson is kinda wild card. He's now getting involved in so much off-field pseudo-celebrity lifestyle, and i fear it could mess with his pitching, though he seems as focused as ever in Spring. He had a great year in 2010, but with long/late running season, and the way he was used down the stretch seemingly every night, you'd think all this would catch up to him.

     
  • At 4:59 PM, Anonymous Tracy Fellows said…

    THose are a lot of wins when you total them up, that's about 97 wins from just those 12 pitchers and you know there will be more...

    I hate to be the skeptic, but I think the Giants will have a World Series hangover....

    Lineceum goes 13-11 with a 4.22 era with a declining K-rate.

    Cain's mathmatecal stats catch up and he has a horrible yaer: 8-15, 5.23 era, 1.57 WHIP.

    I know most of the readers here will disagree, and ask for my head on a platter, but I just think this group was content with their one win in 2010, and I'd be willing to bet any Giants fan $100 that they miss the postseason this summer!

    Anyone want to follow up on my bet, e-mail me at T.Fellows(at)mysportsradio.com

    Sincerly,
    Tracy Fellows

     
  • At 8:21 PM, Blogger david said…

    i will take you up on that bet miss brian fellows dahagot@gmail.com

     
  • At 1:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I can't wait till cactus season starts and we get to see guys like Sandoval and DeRosa. I don't even remember what DeRosa plays like. I was out of the country in April and early May last year and never got a chance to see DeRosa get going.

    From what I hear from St. Louis and Chicago fans is that he's an all out gamer and clutch hitter. So I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Stevey Ray's 2011 MLB predictions:

    NL West: Giants
    NL Cent.: Cardinals
    NL East: Phillies
    NL WC: Reds

    AL West: Rangers
    AL Central: ChiSox
    AL East: "explitive" Yankees
    AL WC: Red Sox

    '11 WS Winner: Philies (sorry Giants fans, but look at that team after the addition. Only injury can in-destruct them!

     
  • At 1:58 PM, Anonymous DJ Garrett said…

    David,

    Good to see the Giants fans stepping up. But I rescend the offer on this particular bet at this particular time. I"m a frequent at this site, better than a lot of the watered down, re-quotes you get at other blogs and this guy knows his shit.

    I made the bet offer to see if there are any other lurkers out there interested in some friendly wagering. You seem like a Giants loyalist and I'm down to make side bets with you throughout the season if you want!
    PS. I'm pretty un-biased when it comes to betting, but I grew up in SD and the Fathers will always be my #1 squad (too bad they'll be your the Giants' bit(#e$)

     
  • At 4:20 PM, Blogger Trevor Cole said…

    Tracy,

    Again, these are just educated assessments and projections.

    If I were to go through and calculate every game scenario, I'd get more accurate assessments, but those are just the loose ballpark expectations with educational research put in... Not just some random, thrown out numbers that look good... Keep in mind, I'd like to say one more time, I don't expect them to be mirror images of final season stats, so there is a small margain for error that nobody can possibly predict at this time.

    I'm not a team doctor and don't have personal relationships with these players so if there all out there playing in Spring, I'll assume they'll be ready for the season. Injuries, though, can never be expected.

    TREVOR COLE
    -Founder, Creator, Designer, Editor,CFO:
    THE GIANTS BASEBALL BLOG
    ----------

    Be on the lookout for the Warriors Rundown (self explanatory) and Bay Area Sports Journal, the new general themed Bay Area Sports banter outlet.

     
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