The NL Central again looks like the Cardinals' to lose. If the Brewers pitching staff is healthy though, they should absolutely push for a postseason spot. The Cubs did a lot this winter, but still lack the overall depth to really push for October this year. The Pirates and Reds each have some bright spots on their rosters but have a long way to go until they're legit competitors again.
First Place, St. Louis Cardinals
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Jack Flaherty 2. LHP Jordan Montgomery 3. RHP Adam Wainwright 4. RHP Miles Mikolas 5. LHP Stephen Matz CL: RHP Ryan Helsley
The Cards lost their leader with Yadiar Molina retiring, but they did a pretty good job at replacing him behind the plate with Contreras. They have two MVP-candidates in the middle of their order and some young studs like Nootbaar and Edman who look like all-stars already. If Gorman can round into form and O'Neil performs closer to his 2021 line than last years then this will be one of the best lineups in the NL. Not to mention, they have one of the best, if not the best defensive team in the game. Not many holes when you look up and down that lineup and they have depth on their bench as well.
Their rotation could pose some questions. Flaherty hasn't had a full productive season since 2019, but he looks healthy so far this spring. He can be a true ace if he overcomes the ailments that have weighed him down the last few seasons. Matz has also battled injuries in recent seasons but has shown to be a solid starter when he's healthy. Montgomery looked great after coming over from the Yankees last year. Wainwright keeps beating father time but I have a feeling we'll see much more decline this year. Mikolas is a solid back-end guy who will consistently give them quality innings. The bullpen is one of the better ones in baseball with multiple guys who have high-end closing stuff. They have the lineup and pen to make a world series run, it's going to ride on how this rotation holds up and performs.
Second Place, Milwaukee Brewers
Lineup: 1. RF Christian Yellich 2. SS Willy Adames 3. DH Jessie Winker 4. 1B Rowdy Telez 5. C William Contreras 6. 2B Luis Urias 7. CF Garrett Mitchell 8. 3B Brian Anderson 9. RF Tyrone Taylor/Tyler Naquin
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Corbin Burnes 2. RHP Brandon Woodruff 3. RHP Freddy Peralta 4. LHP Eric Lauer 5. LHP Wade Miley CL: RHP Devin Williams
The Brewers lost Kolton Wong and Hunter Renfroe this winter. They essentially replaced Renfroe with Winker, which will be an upgrade assuming Winker is in his '20-'21 form. I keep holding out hope Yellich will eventually turn back into that premier talent he was a few years back. At least get that average back up. Adames doesn't get the clout among the top shortstops in the game but he definitely should. I love the addition of Contreras behind the plate and I'm excited to see what he does as a full-time player. Mitchell looked good after arriving last year and should be in the mix for rookie of the year.
The rotation is stacked with that top-three. Peralta was injured most of 2022 but if he bounces back like expected, they have essentially three aces heading up their staff. There's not a trio of starters on any other team I'd take over those guys. Lauer also doesn't get much credit as he's overshadowed by the guys in front of him but he's rocking an ERA around 3.50 over last two seasons. Miley gives them a good veteran presence at the end. The bullpen isn't spectacular but they're good enough to get the job done and they have an elite arm in Williams shutting the door for them. I do like this team a lot, and they should at least compete for one of the wild card spots with their talent and pitching.
Third Place, Chicago Cubs
Lineup: 1. 2B Nico Hoerner 2. SS Dansby Swanson 3. LF Ian Happ 4. RF Seiya Suzuki* 5. DH Trey Mancini 6. 1B Eric Hosmer 7. CF Cody Bellinger 8. 3B Patrick Wisdom 9. C Tucker Barnhart (*Suzuki will start year on IL)
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Marcus Stroman 2. RHP Jameson Taillon 3. LHP Justin Steele 4. LHP Drew Smyly 5. RHP Heyden Wesneski CL: LHP Brandon Hughes
The Cubs did a lot this offseason, bringing in Swanson, Bellinger, Mancini, Hosmer, Barnhart and Taillon. They're hoping to get a more relaxed version of Bellinger and that it translates to re-finding his stroke. Like with Yellich, the talent is still in there. Swanson is an awesome addition to the top of the lineup and middle infield where he and Hoerner should form a dynamic duo both offensively and defensively. Mancini is just a year removed from an all-star appearance so I would expect a better year from him. They have some young exciting players who are on the verge of arriving as well.
There rotation looks pretty average. I like 'Stro at the top of it and I think Taillon was a good pickup but who knows what they'll get out of the rest. Kyle Hendricks will be healthy eventually though and I'd imagine he'll take over for one of the pitchers who aren't performing. They're going to need their rotation to be good though because they don't have the deepest bullpen out there. Hughes looks like he's going to be the closer by default. Regardless of maybe some of the pitching shortcomings, it should be an interesting year on the North Side, and this team looks like it's one the right path.
Fourth Place, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Roansy Contreras 2. LHP Rich Hill 3. RHP Mitch Keller 4. RHP JT Brubaker 5. RHP Vince Velazquez CL: RHP David Bednar
The Pirates could have one of their more interesting teams they've had in a few years. They have the up-and-coming star talents in Hayes and Cruz. An established young all-star in Reynolds (although for how much longer is anybodies guess) and a couple solid veterans in 'Cutch and Santana. Castro also showed some glimpses last season and could wind up at the top of the order if he keeps ascending.
Their rotation is going to be a bit of a work in progress, however. Contreras looks like he could end up being a solid starter for years to come, and Keller had a pretty nice year in '22 when you take away the win-loss record. Hill and Velazquez are pretty much just fillers at this point in their careers, although Hill keeps somehow making himself useful well into his 40's now. Their bullpen has some interesting arms down there, led by all-star closer David Bednar. Overall, they should provide optimism, at least on offense, that things are moving in the right direction. They just don't have the pitching to make them competitive quite yet.
Fifth Place, Cincinnati Reds
Lineup: 1. 2B Jonathan India 2. C Tyler Stephenson 3. DH Joey Votto 4. 1B Wil Myers 5. LF Jake Fraley 6. 3B Spencer Steer 7. RF TJ Friedl 8. SS Kevin Newman 9. CF Nick Senzel
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Hunter Green 2. LHP Nick Lodolo 3. RHP Graham Ashcraft 4. RHP Luke Weaver 5. RHP Luis Cessa CL: RHP Alexis Diaz
The Reds are still in the middle of their rebuild, but they haven't made much progress the last couple years. India looked good as a rookie but had a terrible season last year. Stephenson is a solid catcher who can hit at the top of the lineup. They have a few veterans in the middle with Votto and Myers. Steer and Friedl could turn out to be something but they haven't really shown any indication of that. I put them behind the Pirates because the Pirates have a much more dynamic offense.
Where the Reds do have a leg up on Pirates though is in the starting pitching department. The Reds have three guys who they're hoping they can build around. Green has shown his ability with his 100+ mph heater. Lodolo already looks like a very good young lefty and Ashcraft is a hard-throwing right-hander who they're very high on. The bullpen is essentially all replacement level aside from Diaz, who was elite last year with a 244 ERA+ and 3.1 WAR.
Comments