Finally, after going division-by-division for the rest of the league, we end up with the NL West.
Of course we all know about the big moves made by the Padres and the expectations there. The Dodgers didn't have as flashy of an offseason but they still are the division favorites in many people's eyes. The Giants, while not adding the stars they wanted, also improved and should be a better team than they were a year ago. The D-Backs are slowly creeping back into the picture, piling up young position playing talent and just waiting for their pitching to catch up. The Rockies are the only team in this division who don't have much of a shot at being a .500 ball club.
First Place, San Diego Padres
Lineup: 1. SS Xander Bogaerts 2. LF Juan Soto 3. 3B Manny Machado 4. RF Fernando Tatis* Jr. 5. 1B Jake Cronenworth 6. DH Matt Carpenter/Nelson Cruz 7. 2B Ha-Seong Kim 8. CF Trent Grisham 9. C Austin Nola
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Yu Darvish 2. LHP Blake Snell 3. RHP Joe Musgrove* 4. RHP Michael Wacha 5. RHP Nick Martinez CL: LHP Josh Hader
The Padres lineup has been getting a ton of buzz after they've added both Juan Soto and Bogaerts within the last 9 months. Add that to the fact that Tatis Jr. will return to them in mid-April with presumably a big chip on his shoulder and your looking at four guys with MVP-type talent filling out half of their batting order. I'm not concerned about that part though. Who knows how much Carpentar and Cruz have left? Will Grisham bounce back offensively? If he does it makes this lineup even more lethal. Even if they don't get a ton from their bottom half, that top-five is good enough to carry them as long as those guys can stay on the field.
They have a quality starting rotation, but they don't have much depth. Musgrove is already questionable to start the season. Darvish is 36, and Snell has spent a ton of time on the injured list throughout his career. If those guys stay relatively healthy, and they get serviceable production out of the bottom of their rotation, they're going to be one of the best teams in the NL. They have Hader shutting the door on teams who, despite some shaky moments in 2022, is still one of the top-five closers in baseball.
Second Place, Los Angeles Dodgers (NL Wild Card)
Rotation/Closer: 1. LHP Clayton Kershaw 2. LHP Julio Urias 3. RHP Tony Gonsolin* 4. RHP Dustin May 5. RHP Noah Syndergaard CL: RHP Evan Phillips/RHP Brusdar Graterol
The Dodgers don't appear to have the powerhouse team they've had the past few years, at least on paper. They still have a lot of talent in that lineup headed by Betts and Freeman. I think Martinez is going to have a good year for them as well. Losing Gavin Lux was a huge blow though. They don't have the fire power that San Diego does on paper. They're going to have to rely on a few different guys stepping up in order for them to keep pace but this should still be an above-average lineup.
Their rotation, despite missing Walker Buehler, should still be really good. They do need Gonsolin back early in the season, and May to be all the way back from his 2021 surgery in order to hit their potential though. Like Martinez to their lineup, I think Syndergaard was a sneaky good pickup and a guy the Dodgers could end up getting a lot out of. They don't have a clear-cut closer heading in but more than a couple guys who can do the job. They're not as flashy as they were a year ago, but they still have the core and makeup to be a 90+ win team.
Third Place, San Francisco Giants
Lineup: 1. 1B LaMonte Wade Jr. 2. 2B Thairo Estrada 3. RF Michael Conforto 4. DH Joc Pederson 5. LF Mitch Haniger* 6. CF Mike Yastrzemski 7. SS Brandon Crawford 8. 3B David Villar 9. C Joey Bart
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Logan Webb 2. RHP Alex Cobb 3. RHP Ross Stripling 4. LHP Alex Wood 5. LHP Sean Manaea/RHP Anthony DeSclafini CL: RHP Camilo Doval
We'll do a more in-depth look at them before their opener next Thursday in New York but the Giants could go a number of directions this season. They didn't add Judge or Correa to their lineup like they had hoped, but Haniger and Conforto were not terrible consolations. I'm expecting an all-star year out of Conforto and if Haniger stays healthy, he should lead the team in home runs. They have a few young question marks in their lineup (Bart and Villar), and a few guys they're hoping bounce back from tough '22 seasons (Yaz , Crawford and Wade). If they get solid production from the five in question, they'll have a nice lineup but that could be asking too much.
The Giants rotational depth is something that should anchor them throughout the year. They have seven guys on their big league staff who they feel comfortable handing the ball to in starting situations. Then they have young Kyle Harrison waiting in the wings, who could be better than all of them. Their bullpen should be much better than it was last year as well. Doval has another year under his belt and they have a couple of legit late-inning guys around to help him. If the defense improves and the lineup can stay on the field and produce to their capabilities, they have enough depth and pitching to compete for a wild card spot. It's a lot that has to go right but in 2021 it did. In 2022 it definitely did not. It should be interesting to see what's in store for 2023.
Fourth Place, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rotation/Closer: 1. RHP Zac Gallen 2. RHP Merrill Kelly 3. LHP Madison Bumgarner 4. RHP Zach Davis 5. RHP Drey Jamison/Ryne Nelson CL: RHP Mark Melancon/Scott McGough
The D-Backs have been gaining respect all offseason as a dark horse candidate in the West, but I think they're still a year away. They have an exciting young trio in their outfield led by the budding superstar Carroll. McCarthy looks primed for a breakout season as well. Thomas didn't hit quite as well as the team was expecting after he arrived last year but he's only 22 and has plenty of time to figure it out. They also have Kyle Lewis, a former Mariner's top-prospect out there for depth. Marte should bounce back after a down '22 and they have one of the best catching prospects in the game in Moreno.
Their lineup is certainly on the rise, but their rotation is much more of a question mark. Gallen is to Arizona what Logan Webb is to the Giants, but there isn't a whole lot behind him yet. Kelly looked really good for most of last year though, and they're hoping for a little more consistency from him. MadBum has fallen mightily since his time in San Francisco and could lose his spot in the rotation if he doesn't turn it around. Their bullpen has some exciting arms with potential, but no clear-cut closer and not a ton of experience and depth.
Fifth Place, Colorado Rockies
Lineup: 1. LF Jurickson Profar 2. RF Kris Bryant 3. DH Charlie Blackmon 4. 1B C.J. Cron 5. 2B Ryan McMahon 6. CF Randal Grichuk 7. 3B Elehuris Montero 8. C Elias Diaz 9. SS Ezequiel Tovar
Rotation/Closer: 1. LHP Kyle Freeland 2. RHP German Marquez 3. LHP Austin Gomber 4. RHP Jose Urena 5. RHP Ryan Feltner/Antonio Senzatela* CL: RHP Daniel Bard
The Rockies just added Profar to their lineup a few days ago, which could end up being a nice bargain. They're hoping their investment in Bryant starts paying off after a lost year one. Cron has been a good fit in Coors field but tailed off after a torrid start last year. Montero and Tovar are exciting young hitters who have looked good this spring. At some point we'll also see Zach Veen, who's one of the better outfield prospects in the game. The Rockies are the favorites to finish in the NL West cellar but their lineup always is tough at home and should be again this year.
The rotation is a little messier situation. Freeland is a decent left-handed starter but no ace. Marquez and Gomber both have their moments, but they're far too inconsistent. The Rockies strength will never be their pitching, but it has to be better and deeper than it currently is if they want to compete again in this division. Bard, at age 37, is still as steady as they come shutting the door on teams, but they just don't have enough quality on this staff to give them a chance to be truly relevant.
*indicates player will start year on IL/Suspension
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